17:00 CEST NSL Open tournament #3 Group Stage http://ensl.org/contests/412
Week 1 coverage!
Hi there, some week 1 predictions and statements coming up!
Any prediction attemps on first week are usually quite futile as the teams are still figuring out their new lineups and the predictors haven't got any HLTV demos to watch. Anyway, this week we've got TrC doing the group A preds and me predicting the group B. In addition I tried to get some statements and comments from whoever I could contact on irc and steam yesterday.
Even if the rules are a bit stricter this season, I didn't want to prevent people from having some friendly verbal pokes at the opponents and teammates if they felt like doing so. So, if you somehow find the statements offensive or unacceptable, contact me and I'll have them removed asap. I also took the liberty of picking the most dramatic lines, so don't take anything too personally. All the comments were done in good intend and sportsmanship and I thank people for co-operating with my silly ideas.
TrC's Group A predictions.
Hydra vs take over
GibbZ (Take over):
"If we're playing a team with BIGbanana in, I can't see how we can lose... Unless we use beefi :<"
Take over is going to have the upper hand in this game however we should not ignore the possibility of Hydra getting a round or two. Both teams have played few pcws but neither one has been very active so warm-ups before the match are going to be crucial.Take over is a band of skilled inviduals gathered together including the blacksheep (me ;;) , but teamwork isnt topnotch. Hydra on the other hand has many russian players who have played together quite a lot thus having some form of past with team working and it is going to be their weapon against clearly higher skilled opponent.
Here we have once popular map but nowdays a bit avoided due being a little unfair to marine side. Marine win is going to be hard work for take over and this is going to be the best chance for Hydra to get their 1 point.
Round 1, take over as marines
Round is going to start with sudden rt pushes hydra drops 1-2 rts depeding of hive and take over pushes to the nodes and simultainously capping opposed side nodes. RTS are going to drop down with few marine losses and marine side guards the nodes without fail until hive is dropped. Lifeforms are no match for the rampaging sg aimbots and hive is down... Hydra F4's
Round 2, Hydra as marines
We are going to see a push team of 3 probably without sg at the start due fast motion tactic which is popular lately with lower skilled clans. Hydra fails the rush and after king_yo's lerk cappers fall and the game is over.
Probably the third popular map after the veil and tanith, mid-large, lots of variable tactics including both fast pushes, fast capping and fast motion. Vents make baserush very good choice as well. Aliens may mass-rt also.
Round 3, take over as marines
Fast capping on laser/comp side depending the hive, fast rush to the ventilation with lmgs or to power with a shotgun. Incase of a mass-rts comm is going to
lease the shotgun hell. Aliens are going to start with fast chambers probably dc for cara and double rt healing or fast silence. After few failures marines manage to get the rts down and depending on how soon the game is going to be 2 hives against jetpacks or plain sg rush to the mainhive. Incase of 2hives scenario fades are not going to be a match for the bloodthirsty marines and the game is ended after sieging second hive.
Round 4, Hydra as marines
SG rush is a possiblity but Hydra is probably going to push to 2 sgs to the rts. Push fails after lerk gets to sporing and gorge spit is going to be too much for the comm and marines to handle. Hydra manages to get rts up but they are eaten of quickly game ends after second hive is up.
take over - s4 (One-man-army) and zh (mastermind)
Hydra - noway (fast improvement and activity)
I predict 4-0 for take over with a little chance of 3-1 (Eclipse take over as marine)
Tuxedo Men vs 250 de ping
jiriki (Tuxedo Men):
"We're cool as long as sonder cannot locate the logoff button"
Here we a newly formed clan with some nice activity against a Argentina team which I know very little of. They have not played against european teams as far as I know but
they seem to have small roster which could mean they are somewhat active and have core team that knows each other. Ping is going to be disadvantagious for our guests, but I
doubt this is going to be a runover. Tuxedo Men are improving every second slowly but surely and we are going to see some nice clashes here.
Round 1, Tuxedo Men as marines
Fast motion tracking with almost 100% certainty and aim for end-game res control and heavy armor. This is going to be the most even of the rounds and whoever loses or keeps the begining res nodes is going to be the game point. Attempt to kill the res nodes are going to be made with lmgs first and soon after first death the SG is going to be dropped. I can guess very little what alien side is going to do, but its probably some kind of mix between normal tactics and mass rts. Clashes all over the map eventually lead to alien control and Tuxedo Men are forced to F4.
Round 2, 250 de ping as marines
2 men to station capping the node, 3 guys build the base 2 boomsticks and mad rush to the nodes. Jiriki being above average on every lifeform is likely to fade or lerk and his play will influence the game greatly. Tuxedo men have the advantage and without major failures nodes or at least 1 node is going to stay up. 2nd Hive rush is going to fail at early stages and last of 250 de pings resources drop when 2nd hive is up. Game over.
Round 3, Tuxedo Men as marines
Depending on how the last marine round went Tuxedo men continue with fast motion as this map supports it. Capping bio side succeeds with very little resistance as lmgs rush vent and keeps the skulks occupied. Should marine push fail to early resistance, capping would be difficult and lead the game in favor for aliens as capping res nodes becomes harder and double is not going to be build. Aliens hump resources and build double up with a help of fades and lerks. Jetpack is the likely choice for this map and key point will be how soon will marines get it. Too late and marines have to face swarms of fade or soon enough and the control falls back to the marines as they cap double for themselfs. After few baserush attempts, aliens start to fall to the HA/JP combination and second hive is sieged down.
Round 4, 250 de ping as marines
LMG push with 2 straight to ore or ventilation fast motion or PG for control and humbing for the late game. If marines are lucky enough with the res (bad alien res biting) we might see few turrets aswell <3. Aliens start with 2 rts incase of bio and DC double tactic is not out of the possibilities either incase of Furnace or Ventilation hive. Again lifeforms play big role whether if they kill recappers and the guards smoothly enough is going to be the key. After marines manage to hump enough res they lock down the third hive with turrents or PG and research HA and try to siege hive but because of bad res killing aliens have onos and 2 hives the result is clear.
Tuxedo men - Jiriki (all around) Sonder (comm/ris ing star) Hanzo (rising star)
250 de ping - Whoevermadetheirpic (genious)
I predict 3-1
Bacillus' Group B preds
Sauna - U GO
frG (U GO):
"I am very excited abour our match vs Saunamen, as most pcw's against them were of high level, and we are matches opponents. I am not sure who will take this win, as we are a 6-7 man roster atm, but then again Saunamen has some HOT players."
"After we won the last "stick" game vs saunamen, we can definitely take this match."
"Couldn’t have start season better than face our strongest rival in very first match. Outcome of this match will set tone for rest of the season. I expect even match but if we can field our best lineup we should be able to control the game. Though despite the outcome I think we will see U GO in finals anyway but winner here get psychological advance for whole season."
The match of the week here! Two top teams in the group B face each other right on the first week.
Saunamen needs little introduction nowadays. The reigning champions have been the most consistent team for a few seasons now. The core lineup has gone through some changes for this season, but players like Peach, Kuitmo, Tane and Zharp are still there. Their hottest addition to this season is Enigmatic. He'll most likely take Nade's place as a lerk and might also contest Tane's position as the opening shotgunner.
U GO replaced the rather inactive Quaxy in the group B. They are fielding a lineup which mostly resembles the Squad 6 from last season. JaIvOl will most likely do the commanding, aA fading, Almaty (MP) lerking and frG whatever else needs to be done. All in all, they've got a talented and solid roster as long as they get some PCWs to catch the routine back.
As usual, the first week match is a blind guess. The reigning champions of Sauna are obiviously expected to come on top, but it's in no way an easy walk in the park. Especially Eclipse is quite unpredictable due to the Computer Core area ramps and easily isolated Eclipse and Maintenance hives.
My prediction is Sauna taking this 3 - 1, while U GO takes Eclipse marines.
TTS - Stray Dogs
"miglec is a traitor for leaving tts and for that they shall fall hard!"
Yet another interesting match this week! TTS - SD isn't going to amaze with high skill moves or finesse, but it makes up for its weaknesses on random chaos.
The TTS are masterful at stirring up chaos. Their alien rounds involve baserushes, mass RTs and lots of dead lifeforms. On marines they often employ mass shotguns and possibly ninja PGs in addition to the usual cookie cutting style. All in all their playstyle creates openings for drama, big comebacks and massive collapses in every round.
The Stray Dogs are a combination of experience and some newer players mostly seen in gathers before this season. Their game plans aren't as wild as TTS', but I wouldn't be surprised of some deviation from the basics.
I think TTS' more experienced lineup will prevail, but they might end up slipping the Origin marines, making it 3 - 1 for TTS.
Demonic Soul - Newstyled
"we doesn't have practice. your team have a nice players, but we will enjoy this match, gL !"
Uhh, the oversea games just don't cut when it comes to predicting.
The Korean team Demonic Soul is still going strong. As usual, their game style is suited to the high ping play and causes some interesting variations to the usual Euro matchups. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some extra careful lifeforms on aliens. On marines JP HMG combos are most likely going to corner some fades.
Newstyled have got a lot to prove on this match. Their former roster is now strenghtened with Flatline players like Phil, Morvie and Hivefish. With Saperion as comm and Morvie and Phil playing the lifeforms, I'd expect to see some pretty standard play. How Phil's lerk and Morvie's shotgun perform on laggy circumstances remains to be seen.
My guess is that Newstyled is going to take this one. Still, the koreans have proven to be dangerous especially on marines. 3 - 1 for Newstyled, Koreans taking Eclipse marines with some great JP play.
Lots of 3 - 1 in group B. That either makes it an even and exciting week 1 or makes me a bad predictor. You decide.
See you next week with some better organised coverage, try not to get your steam hijacked. :)