17:00 CEST NSL Open tournament #3 Group Stage http://ensl.org/contests/412
Week 5 Predictions!
Week 4 finally brought some forfeits with it, but the season is still looking excellent and looks like we'll be able to finish the regular season in excellent condition. Keep up the good work!
This week I did the group A preds and TrC did group B.
Bacillus' Group A Preds:
Ninelegends - Turning Point
Last week Ninelegends took a 4-0 victory from 250 de Ping and nearly secured the semi-final spot. Their game didn't look all that good on a few occassions, but eventually the experience and routine prevailed. Still, I can't help feeling it could have been a 2-2 if the Argetinians hadn't been a little sloppy on few situations. I'm still rather disappointed to the 9L's alien mass RT tactic. Although they seem to hold nodes well even against teams like Take Over, the late lifeforms and hives end up costing rounds here and there. Half of the disappointment is because I'd really like to see more Fana and Morphz' fading and not as much because of ineffectiveness of the tactic itself though.
Turning Point ended up tying points with Tuxedo Men. TP's game looked well rounded, but their lack of consistency and overall experience just wasn't enough to pull off a victory. Losing Metal and winning Tanith is a good example of that slight bit of inconsistency and lack of adaptation. Still, you have to give them credit as the Turning Point-Tuxedo Men was one of the most exciting and close NS matches this season. The matchup also introduced MP's (Almaty) do-or-die lerking as the newest feature in TP's weaponry. It's definitely going to affect the alien rounds one way or the other.
Despite some bad rounds 9L is the strong favourite here. They 4-0'd the Argentians while TP couldn't pinch a single round from the same team. Still, I'd say the match is going to be much closer than you'd expect based on the recent results. TP might be able to punish the 9L RT opening with some aggressive play.
I'll make things a bit more exciting and call this 'just' 3-1 for NL. Turning Point deserves at least round after the last week's entertaining rounds.
Tuxedo Men - Take Over
Tuxedo Men faced the Turning Point in a excellent and even match last week. The Tuxedos seem to improve constantly and the addition of Atman brought some extra punching power for their marine rounds. On aliens his fading hasn't been on the expected level, but I hope him to pick up at least some shape this week.
Take Over took a rather easy 4-0 against Keen Edge. They allowed kE to get to the 2nd hive phase in Metal despite having K:D of 5 for the most of the round, but even against the 2nd hive they kept their cool and finished the game with superior skill. They also introduced the old Insane player FlashnaabZ' to the lineup. So far he hasn't been anything spectacular, but his experience and skills will most likely be great use when tO heads to the season finals.
The match itself is pretty interesting despite tO being the clear favourite. TM has been playing good NS and I wouldn't be surprised if they managed to put up a decent fight on most rounds. Still, there's no denying that tO's top lineup is two steps ahead in individual skill all around. Depending on the lineups TM might still be able to steal one round as tO doesn't need to prove anything until the playoffs start.
My pred is 3-1 for tO. TM gets one round for improving constantly and being active all season.
250 de Ping - Keen Edge
The Argentinian 250 de Ping put up a good fight against 9L. Still, they could've done even better with a bit more controlled team effort as they were ahead in both Metal marines and Tanith aliens. A few critical mistakes still ended up costing them the rounds and sealed the disappointing 4-0 defeat.
Keen Edge lost 4-0 to tO last week. The result itself isn't disappointing, but the performance itself displayed the kE weaknesses clearly: The team's individual level just isn't enough to match most of the opponents and the inconsistent teamwork effort doesn't always save the day. I've been waiting kE to pick up the pace and start winning rounds, but it's getting too late now.
Based on last week's performances the 250 pingers are far more hungry for round wins. The big pings also give them some home ground advantage. The laggy circumstances don't at least help the kE to close the gap on individual performances, so I'll rank the Argentinians as a clear favourite here.
My pred is 3-1 for 250 de Ping. kE can still take the aliens on Eclipse.
TrC's Group B Preds:
Stray Dogs vs NewStyleD Return
Stray Dogs managed to get some control to the game against DS.kor and apparently they had been actively training for this match. The result of practice paid off well piercing through DS.kor's alien defence which I thought was solid enough and gave SD the points they need for div2.
Newstyled on the other hand shamed the scene by getting first forfeit and as for their activity it seems to be down as well. I have seen invidual players play quite active though (phil) but I dont think it is going to be enough if they plan on replaying the match against Saunamen.
While normally I would predict 4-0 for Newstyled, this time the inactivity is going to cost them points and lets hope they do not fold before we get this ENSL done. You cannot ignore SD's improvement either.
I predict 3-1 for Newstyled
Stray Dogs - Doctor (All around,Game leader) DeZ (marine) Miglecz++ (if marine)
NewstyleD Return - phil (Fade,lerk,marine)
Two Team Squad vs Saunamen
TTS had to unfortunetly forfeit last week as well making total forfeit count to 2. However TTS is the longest clan alive in this ensl season and I doubt
they will have same problem this week. So far TTS has gotten 1 round in all 4 matches while Saunamen have only lost 1 round so its practically top vs bottom.
Outcome is pretty clear but lets hope TTS will bring some nice chaos to the Saunamen's play.
Saunamen's activity has dropped slightly (assuming from those U GO?/Sauna mix'es we have been playing lately) but I doubt it will have any relevant effect on
the match. Saunamen's only small chance of dropping 1 place is gone now that Newstyled dropped to hibernation and they will be preparing for semi-final match
Needless to say but here it is
I predict 4-0 for Saunamen
Saunamen - Kuitmo (all around) enigmatic (all around)
The Two Team Squad - none
U GO? vs Demonic Soul
A high ping game we all love. Difference in skill is too much here though, DS.kor played rather weak against DOGO powered SD last week but managed to get 1 round. Their chances of getting to div2 are gone now that they face opponent which is most likely the second best clan out there atm. That is by all means no reason to be depressed since there is one more chance to show some korean magic. I believe DS.kor will enter the match in high spirits and give U GO? the fight they never expected.
U GO? will expect an overrun and claim their chance for div1 finals.
I predict 4-0 for U GO?
U GO? - Multivac (fade, marine), FrG (marine)
Demonic Soul - Nec0 (fade, marine, skulk!), effy (fade, marine), demon (skulk)
Stay tuned for the semi-finals. Make sure you read the updated semi-final section on the rules too!