17:00 CEST NSL Open tournament #3 Group Stage http://ensl.org/contests/412
Week 5 Predictions!
Hi there! Another week, more preds and some more missing pieces in the prediction puzzle of match history.
Bacillus' Premiere Division Predictions
9L vs TROLLS
-The match of the week!-
Ninelegends haven't played league matches for a while, but they still seem motivated and practise more than the vast majority of the teams in the league. Against Saunamen their alien play looked very solid and the general marine power was more than enough to push over the round on Metal. On Tanith they missed the 2nd hive timing and never fully recovered against 2-hive saunamen, even if the put up a long and eventful fight. All in all, apart from a few Doctor's decisions on Tanith marines, you can't argue that much with the results and perfomance 9L has been putting up.
Based on the Season 14 winning team, the TROLLS are right now contending with 9L for the position of touhgest team on NS. They are still looking a bit unorganised on some occassions (Tanith marines vs DeGs to name one), but as long as they keep winning matches in such convincing way, I can't see them being left out the top 2 very easily.
The actual skill level of the teams is difficult to judge due to the lack of competetion these teams face. Both have dropped one round so far, but both also seemed pretty comfortable in taking the remaining 3 rounds in each match. This week's clash is definitely going to give us some indication on how the rest of the season is going to play out. In general I consider 9L as a more disciplined and organised match while the TROLLS more or less maim their way through the opposition with superior skill and experience. Against 9L the TROLLS don't have any decisive skill advantage, which puts them in a new kind of situation. I'll give 9L a bit of upper hand on a very general level, but the maps being Origin and Orbital this can go either way very easily. The decivise round break can happen quite easily in either map.
My pred is 3-1 for 9L, taking both rounds in Orbital.
Saunamen vs prostokvashino
Seeing Saunamen face Ninelegends was definitely my highlight of the season so far. Even if rusty, Saunamen still had the same control, calmness and adaptation that characterized their game back in their prime. Their game also included some pretty simple mistakes, like forgetting to fortify the chem and acidic nodes against repetetive 9L attacks even if the DC was already in the play.
Only having played 2 matches and both against superior opponents, Prosto still remains quite difficult to predict. So far they've been mostly just a step or two behind their opponents in most turns and twists and lacked any kind of strength to make up for the less skilled lineup.
I feel the map pool favours Saunamen. Origin traditionally has a Finnish flavour in it and Peach is known to be masterful in exploiting the tricks and weirdness in it. Orbital isn't really favourable for any European team, but I believe Sauna will still be pretty comfortable in it with all the routine they've got. Also, the only round Prosto has got so far has been an alien mass RT strat, which should be once again blocked by Peach's mastery in the CC.
With the maps as they are, 4-0 Saunamen shouldn't be a surprise.
TeaM Fantasy vs CAL-NS
Despite the abysmal season record so far, Team Fantasy isn't looking all that terrible. So far they've only faced the very top teams of the whole league. They've put up fights, but ended up falling a few skill levels short. With such dramatic skill differences, TeamF hasn't been able to showcase their excellent teamwork that they've developed and polished during over 10 seasons of Finnish ENSL history.
CAL-NS has been trailing slightly behind the very top teams so far, but they are in no way out of the contest yet. In general they've still been good, but some lack of skulking finesse and heavy reliance on initial shotgun push have kept losing them some valuable rounds.
I think Fantasy has a decent shot to open their scoring for this season. Origin isn't a bad map for them and CAL-NS has previously shown some weakness to RT heavy gameplay suited for the same map. Orbital on the other hand might favour CAL due to it's ANSL background. All in all, CAL definitely goes into this as the favourite, but I wouldn't be surprised if Fantasy steals a round or even two.
3-1 for CAL-NS.
TrC's Div 2 Predictions!
250 de ping vs changin THE METAGAME
250 de ping is leading div2 at the moment, but their record shows a slight sign of sloppiness as they have yet to win a game without losing a point. Regardless 250 ping has the skill to fight their way into the finals but the lost points forces 250 de ping to win them from "to be finalists" which may be harder depending activity of course. On marines 250 de pings should embrace more on holding positions than "sudden" rushes.
changin THE METAGAME is two victorys into the season and is finally facing a worthy opponent. Situation wise changin THE METAGAME behind two games giving them chance to come back should they lose or draw since 250 de ping has not taken full points. Fall or rise season is not settled in this fight.
2-2 seems reasonable although changin THE METAGAME has slight advantage
Anonym Anti Anti A. vs teampol
AAAA's lineup's have so far consisted mercs more than average season should allow but at least 2 games have been played. Chances are tactics are non-existant in their games but (actual) people are veterans and know how to adjust whether if its good is another story. Hopefully they have enough alchohol to lure rest of the members to the server this week.
teampol has been struggling this season but they have taken at least a point/match and have completed every game so far not many can say that. A little burst of activity, sharpness to the play and div2 "third place finals" would not be a dream.
2-2 close game inc
2RAM vs P.I.G.S.
2RAM managed to get important point of 250 de ping last week. It is hard to say whether if they have improved from previous games although moral victory is always good for the future games. Next game they have chance to show whether if it was fluke or not as they will be facing a team yet to lose or win.
Invisible Chancers has been surprising soft judging from their lineup. Invidual activity is apparently not enough to win not to belittle strength of not losing alien rounds but next game will be interesting testing ground for both of these teams.
4-0 for P.I.G.S
New Team vs Stray Dogs
New Team lost a crucial match against 250 de ping perhaps in a slightly unfornate manner. Still luck has not abandonded New Team as they will be playing Stray dogs who have been slight winning streak. A win would ensure a good chance for finals and correct last weeks mistake. Aggressive tactics to confuse SD's alien would be advised 2-2 is not an option.
Stray Dogs started the easy way this season and it really fits their style of adding up games in order to improve teamwork. Previous encounters between these two teams have often been very balanced and slighly alien favored. Simple common gameplay is not enough for full points but 2-2 is acceptable for Stray dogs at the moment.
2-2 unless New Team starts slipping again.