Statistical Insights into ENSL Gathers

Statistical Insights into ENSL Gathers I was bored had to learn for my exams at university but didn’t feel like it. So I finally but my coding skills as a student of computer science to work and did an analysis of ENSL gathers. What follows is pure knowledge about 430 players who participated in 2.422 gathers, distributed among 17 maps and 16 servers.

The results

Top 20 Players by number of Gathers

  1. jiriki: 1171 (48%)
  2. multi: 689 (28%)
  3. Saebelzahnelefant: 688 (28%)
  4. EisTee: 669 (28%)
  5. NecRos_aka_Ninjew: 622 (26%)
  6. blind: 619 (26%)
  7. homik: 595 (25%)
  8. sancezz: 562 (23%)
  9. bHack: 547 (23%)
  10. noway: 543 (22%)
  11. Osku: 532 (22%)
  12. vartija: 525 (22%)
  13. LiZo4ka: 502 (21%)
  14. Co-il: 501 (21%)
  15. aA: 490 (20%)
  16. king_yo: 462 (19%)
  17. ykarus: 462 (19%)
  18. Snake: 446 (18%)
  19. Danny: 431 (18%)
  20. sonder: 394 (16%)

To give you a better understanding of what that means, here is a diagram showing the probability of a player joining a (random) given gather. Obviously jiriki wins because he participated in tests (and is an addict with no real life, which is ok since he lives in Denmark or something).
Probability of player joining a gather
For those of you with no understand f the basic concept of numbers (like women, especially Liza) this means then when you observe* a gather, there is a 48% chance, that jiriki will be in it and a 16% chance, that sonder will be in it.

Top 20 players by number of gathers played as captain

  1. jiriki: 450
  2. multi: 369
  3. aA: 355
  4. Danny: 267
  5. NecRos_aka_Ninjew: 213
  6. pzdc: 198
  7. king_yo: 190
  8. frG: 189
  9. dugi: 183
  10. ret: 157
  11. Snake: 134
  12. Fana: 123
  13. ykarus: 112
  14. s4druid: 99
  15. mkz: 92
  16. Kuitmo: 90
  17. doctor: 75
  18. vartija: 74
  19. noway: 69
  20. sonder: 68

Obviously these are just raw numbers and thus flawed by the number of gathers each player participated in. So lets look a percent.

Top 20 players by percent of gathers played as captain

  1. neuneuil: 100%
  2. fr4ggie: 100%
  3. j0ke: 100%
  4. Tane: 73%
  5. aA: 72%
  6. Fana: 72%
  7. dfairy: 67%
  8. dugi: 64%
  9. Danny: 62%
  10. M: 60%
  11. Peacham: 57%
  12. HiVeFiSh: 57%
  13. pzdc: 55%
  14. multi: 54%
  15. s4druid: 51%
  16. frG: 50%
  17. enigmatic: 50%
  18. elynn: 50%
  19. GibbZ: 50%
  20. _PC: 50%

100% OMG they must be godlike. Wait they only participated in one gather each. So lets set a minimum number a gather one must have participated in.

Top 20 players with at least 10 gathers by percent of gathers played as captain

  1. Tane: 73%
  2. aA: 72%
  3. Fana: 72%
  4. dugi: 64%
  5. Danny: 62%
  6. Peacham: 57%
  7. pzdc: 55%
  8. multi: 54%
  9. s4druid: 51%
  10. frG: 50%
  11. enigmatic: 50%
  12. elynn: 50%
  13. GibbZ: 50%
  14. Kuitmo: 47%
  15. mkz: 47%
  16. Tweadle: 43%
  17. ret: 41%
  18. king_yo: 41%
  19. jiriki: 38%
  20. NecRos_aka_Ninjew: 34%

Not much of a surprise there.
Probability of player being voted captain
Who cares about players? They are just a means to an end. What end? Whining about rates and ping of course. And what is most important for that? Shitty server likes the ones provided by the ENSL.

Top 12 servers with at least 10 gathers played on them

Obviously this numbers to not account for people voting one server and then playing on another.

  1. ENSL #02: 1511 (62%)
  2. ENSL #04: 636 (26%)
  3. ENSL #13: 70 (3%)
  4. ENSL #12: 49 (2%)
  5. Etanoli.org ENSL #9: 31 (1%)
  6. CAL NS MATCH SERVER: 21 (1%)
  7. Gather Server: 19 (1%)
  8. ENSL #10 : 18 (1%)
  9. ENSL #15: 18 (1%)
  10. ENSL #6: 16 (1%)
  11. ENSL #05: 13 (1%)


distribution of server in ENSL gather

First maps with at least 10 votes

  1. ns_veil: 1528 (63%)
  2. ns_tanith: 413 (17%)
  3. ns_origin: 158 (7%)
  4. co_core: 61 (3%)
  5. ns_eclipse: 60 (2%)
  6. ns_orbital_anslv2: 55 (2%)
  7. ns_ayumi_e_b5: 52 (2%)
  8. ns_metal: 34 (1%)
  9. ns_lucid: 27 (1%)
  10. ns_lost: 17 (1%)

Since the first map is the only map in most gathers I choose to visualize only this one:
distribution of first map in Natural Selection gather

Second maps with at least 10 votes

  1. ns_tanith: 978 (40%)
  2. ns_origin: 370 (15%)
  3. ns_veil: 325 (13%)
  4. ns_orbital_anslv2: 195 (8%)
  5. ns_ayumi_e_b5: 123 (5%)
  6. ns_lucid: 111 (5%)
  7. ns_metal: 97 (4%)
  8. ns_eclipse: 92 (4%)
  9. ns_lost: 46 (2%)
  10. co_core: 39 (2%)
  11. ns_caged: 19 (1%)
  12. ns_eon: 14 (1%)

Maps with at least 10 votes

  1. ns_veil: 1853 (77%)
  2. ns_tanith: 1391 (57%)
  3. ns_origin: 528 (22%)
  4. ns_orbital_anslv2: 250 (10%)
  5. ns_ayumi_e_b5: 175 (7%)
  6. ns_eclipse: 152 (6%)
  7. ns_lucid: 138 (6%)
  8. ns_metal: 131 (5%)
  9. co_core: 100 (4%)
  10. ns_lost: 63 (3%)
  11. ns_caged: 25 (1%)
  12. ns_eon: 19 (1%)

About the analysis

I wrote a script that pulled information from all the gather pages. At that point (end of January) 2.639 gathers have supposedly been played. This includes test runs of the script, etc. In the end I got 2.422 valid gathers, of which some were probably just test runs as well. Who care about mathematics and accuracy, n = 2422.

Of course most of my assumptions are wrong, since I assume that there is no such thing as being active for some months and then inactive for some time. But this is about fun, not science.

*: Observe because if you join the gather yourself you totally chance everything. Like when the Austrian duo infernale Saebelzahnelefant and EisTee join a gather everybody knows they will ragequit after one round, so no one bothers joining that gather anymore.

About the author

Testosteron is running the German NS1/NS2 website Lerk.de. Others describe him as awesome, legendary and godlike. At least that is what he likes to believe when he sits in front of his computer, imaging what it would be like to leave his flat and actually meet other people.

Testosterown on 12 February 11 10:33

Comments

176

Blank jiriki | old people

Lol nice article, thanks Testo.

Also a lot could be investigated regarding game balance, player activity, player skill etc. from gameplay logs. There're probably nearly 6.000-10.000 matches recorded.

12 February 2011, 11:40

45

Blank aA

wow nice, TOP 20 NERDS OLOLOL ; D

12 February 2011, 13:29

Noavatar

Blank Ykarus | The Team

:D NERD!!!!

Btw...when did you create the plugin Jiriki?

12 February 2011, 13:38

1716

Blank EisTeeAT

How the fuck am i on 4 ? ... THIS CANNOT BE RIGHT !!

Just had Lunch with Saebel and there was no raging at all !!

12 February 2011, 14:16

1395

Blank Testosterown

jiriki some Dota-League.com like balanced team making, maybe based on a team adaption of the ELO rating system, would be nice!

12 February 2011, 15:17

1395

Blank Testosterown

Why is this article not featured under news on the front page?

12 February 2011, 15:18

25

Blank huhuh | Danny Est Gros

Too bad you don't have any alien/marine %win :(

12 February 2011, 15:27

2063

Blank LiZo4ka | Team Two

WTF IM NOT NERD :DD

12 February 2011, 15:35

1395

Blank Testosterown

huhuh I would need to have access to the log files to to that. All I had was information fathered from the ENSL website with my web crawler.

12 February 2011, 16:49

1716

Blank EisTeeAT

I moved this into the Article Section so it is in Newest Articles now on front page 8) !

12 February 2011, 16:50

1358

Blank homik

n1 stats

12 February 2011, 16:56

Noavatar

Blank GibbZ | 9L

top 20 no lifers

12 February 2011, 18:21

Noavatar

Blank GibbZ | 9L

That is pretty ridiculous though jiriki... wtf :D

12 February 2011, 18:21

Noavatar

Blank Danny | Patphat

nice writing :D

13 February 2011, 02:08

Noavatar

Blank blind | onFire

omfg rank 6....i need to uninstall this shit

btw nice work testo :)

13 February 2011, 02:10

1392

Blank bHack

Rank9. Well, taking in assumption that I didn't play gathers during summer, and than since november~...
=7months...
547/7 = ~78 gathers per month.
which means I've played average of 2.8~ gathers per day. I would say it's ok.

13 February 2011, 04:26

81

Blank lump

lol co_core

16 February 2011, 05:22

949

Blank SaperioN | Flatline-Ns

omg freaks....everyone of them

16 February 2011, 09:16

949

Blank SaperioN | Flatline-Ns

in which time time period is this statistic counting testo ?
if its for 1 year =365 days,

jiriki played 1171 games
-christmas
-jir´s birthday
-10 days buying foodstuff
-maybe 1 shower

yeah your statistic make sense and is obsly right !

16 February 2011, 09:33

1716

Blank EisTeeAT

SAP it says this is from 2422 gathers!

l2read in the end it even says only 2422 were actually valid so basically this is from start of the gathersys till end of january !

16 February 2011, 13:05

176

Blank jiriki | old people

Gibbz, NS1 gathers are pretty much the only games I play nowadays, I don't play public at all. These stats are from ~17-18 months. For me its about 2.1 gathers per day which is about 30 hrs per 2 weeks. Not so uncommon among NS gamers unfortunately. :)

16 February 2011, 15:29

949

Blank SaperioN | Flatline-Ns

ahahahah n1 jiriki, funny how you try to justify yourself :DDD

16 February 2011, 18:09

176

Blank jiriki | old people

Dude, how about you justify your 900 hours on ABLE. ;)

16 February 2011, 18:47

Noavatar

Blank Fana | Archaea

N E R D

16 February 2011, 18:51

1392

Blank bHack

'jiriki'Dude, how about you justify your 900 hours on ABLE. ;)


YEAH SAP, HOW ABOUT YOU EXPLAIN THAT?

16 February 2011, 23:07

949

Blank SaperioN | Flatline-Ns

ffs who hacked my account :DDD

16 February 2011, 23:55

949

Blank SaperioN | Flatline-Ns

no no i am able admin, 800 hours are just spectating and ban players !

17 February 2011, 00:01

898

Blank psyc0mus | minions

Very nicely done testo kudoes to you man i'm impressed :)

17 February 2011, 09:35

Noavatar

Blank Tweadle

jirikiDude, how about you justify your 900 hours on ABLE. ;)

18 February 2011, 14:40

174

Blank d-

:D

18 February 2011, 14:55

1526

Blank NecRos_aka_Orgad | Team Three

HI GUYS HOW HAS IT BEEN

30 March 2011, 15:38

110

Blank Saebelzahnelefant | Team Four

we miss you our favourite jew! greedy of your hp, thus never dieing!

30 March 2011, 16:21

New Comment
Please log in or register to post comments.