Final's prediction, by Bacilus!

Hello everyone, thanks to Bacilus we have some exciting predictions for the finals! Have fun reading!

Bac's Div 1 Final Coverage!

So, the big showdown of season 11 is closing by. As expected before the season, Flatline and Gangbang(/timmerman/lolsteamroll/saunamen/epic/whatever) are going to decide who takes the might champion icons until the next finals. I'll go through things that you'll want to pay attention while watching the match in HLTV.

I'm hoping that we can get at least some shoutcasting done for the finals, so stay tuned on that too.

Marine play

The German team's marine rounds involve a lot of early shotguns and most like an obs-first build. Usually they push to nodes with big brute force, take down a node or two and then move on to set up a PG. After that it's a standard 'upgrades into a second hive push' plan. Their strategies often heavily rely on the push team, while the cappers aren't taking much of hurry to get the economy going.

The Finns are a tough one to predict. Most of the time they'll use a two-man, one shotgun pressure team while 3 marines secure the economy, but there have been variations and exceptions here and there. We've seen fast node LMG pushes, spread two-node pressure, interesting capping routes and I wouldn't be surprised if they try something new on the finals too. Their builds usually involve a fast armslab, but later on it might turn out to be anything from a double hive lockdown to a proto vs 2-hive war.

Morvie and Phil are the two impact players on marines. Phil is a solid all around player and he makes nice use of the LMG's mobility. Morvie on the other hand is the master of SG. A lot of the FL's success relies on his ability to take out at least a node. Without any node pushing success they're going to be in a big hurry against the second hive. Cosmic has also done a great job on marines here and there, but she hasn't been as consistent as Phil and Morvie. Saperion's comming has been decent, but FL has also slipped a few marine rounds they could've won with a little more organised play and different decisions.

The Gangbangers field an interesting mix of marine power. Peach is definitely the maestro leading the rounds from the CC. You'll want to pay attention to his marvellous res control. Last week's ns_lost marine round is a good example as he kept GB in the play with 2-3 nodes for a long period of time. From that point on there have been many players with decent performances. Tane's aim is absolutely devastating and has allowed GB to go for the 2-man node pushes. Last week we also saw Zharp doing some very decent shotgunning. In addition to the shotgun masters, Kuitmo and Doogie have been very good all-around.

Alien play

Both teams play relatively standard alien rounds. GB likes to use a lot of gorges, while FL relies more on skulkwork and maybe one gorge at max. The gorgepower allows GB to OC up the 2nd hive and recap the lost nodes quickly, so we've seen them abandoning their nodes quite easily.

FL's skulkwork is devasting at its best. Once they gain the map control the marines have to struggle hard to regain any of it. GB on the other hand shines on lifeform synergy. Gorges give excellent support to the rest of the team and you'll rarely see any lone lifeforms trying to fight the big enemy groups.

The FL early game is powered by Phil's awesome lerking. He does excellent bite harass and sporing. Most of the time the marine push groups are taking long walks on spore and require heavy medding to reach their destination. Later on the round Morvie's good fading keeps the marines busy. Handschuch seemed to skulk surprisingly well last week, but his veil fade was probably the least effective effort on the whole week. The rest of the FL operates as one powerful skulkpack, but I can't name any alpha skulks from the pack.

The big question here is how Tane's fading goes. It has been quite flashy here and there. Last week he did a decent job, but not much more. Nevertheless, GB shouldn't fall because of his fading unless there are more flashed ones coming. Nade and Kuitmo have both been very reliable lerks, but neither of them is on Phil's level. You'll want to pay special attention to the fierce battlegorges too.


The last week 2-2 left us with an interesting setup. Both teams proved to be capable of 2-0'ing maps and we saw some quite close rounds.

I'd say the biggest questions are probably whether Tane steps up on his fading and whether Phil manages to keep up the excellent lerking. FL needs to be effective with their SG pushes and avoid bigger marine mistakes. GB on the other hand needs to outlast the shotguns, most likely by recapping and hitting back on FL nodes. Peach also needs to be on his toes to not to lose the marine game momentum. Apart from that it boils down to a lot of close calls with SGs, nodes and lifeforms. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a baserush either.

As a Finn I'm calling this a 4-2 for GB , but it's very close to 50-50 right now.

Voodo on 12 December 08 11:19

History | Comments: 25


By: Tweadle on 12/Dec/08 11:28
Really nice preds. Informative, opinionated and concise.
By: GibbZ ( 9L ) on 12/Dec/08 11:42
Really good preds. Great detail!

However doogie is actually well bad :DDD

and Nades lerk imho is up to phils standard altho recently he has been inactive.

I reckon depending on how much flatline play this week it can go either way. In current state, 3-1 GB as my pred.
By: Bacillus ( Quaxy ) on 12/Dec/08 11:48
Doogie has been on the top half of the rine scoreboard on almost every round I've seen him play. That's why I picked him there.

Nade's lerk is really good indeed, we'll see if the inactivity affects him on finals. It's more that Phil's lerk has been stunning all season apart from that veil fail.
By: GibbZ ( 9L ) on 12/Dec/08 12:12
Really? I really haven't thought phils performed this season personally... He hasn't got that "OMG CARRY" effect he used to have. Flatline seems to get ever more team based.

Yet all pcws I've seen Nade play he's kinda kept GB in the game for the alien rounds and he has the experience Kuitmo lacks.
By: GibbZ ( 9L ) on 12/Dec/08 12:13
well good preds still though and I agree with alot of it
By: Android ( Snowrollers ) on 12/Dec/08 12:27
Is there any chance of posting the start time of the match here? I allways miss it and end up with watching demos were i allready know the results :(
Can anyone of the clan leaders tell at least or something.. Default time on sunday? Or some other random date? Would be nice.. thx ;)
By: ShEePy on 12/Dec/08 13:07
Lets talk about IQ again, that was hilarious
By: GibbZ ( 9L ) on 12/Dec/08 13:09
was jokes
By: Android ( Snowrollers ) on 12/Dec/08 13:27
Hehe think you should go read it all over again if you think we were discussin iq... :)
By: Vision ( Quaxy ) on 12/Dec/08 14:26
i predict a 3-1 win for quaxy in the finals
By: Cosmic ( Saperion "Fan"-Club ) on 12/Dec/08 15:00
Team with higher IQ wins, ll be fins, we have some lacks :(
By: Android ( Snowrollers ) on 12/Dec/08 16:07
My predicit is 4-0 to ze fins... But can anyone answer me if its played default time or not?:\
By: Bacillus ( Quaxy ) on 13/Dec/08 11:44
As far as I know it's played on sunday. No idea if its the default time though.
By: Peacham ( Finland ) on 14/Dec/08 05:40
Haven't seen Morvie this week and we haven't scheduled anything but we are ready to start from 19-20cet
By: Android ( Snowrollers ) on 14/Dec/08 11:16
Ok thx :)
By: phil ( Flatline-Ns ) on 14/Dec/08 15:46
zamma ...
get a face
By: phil ( Flatline-Ns ) on 14/Dec/08 15:48
By: Nde ( Saunamen ) on 14/Dec/08 17:43
yep... phil lerk is awesome. I´m not so agressive and dont have so much experiance(started in 3.2 version and when phil started? GG)...

But THE epic finals... :/
By: atman on 14/Dec/08 18:58
By: Arj ( Ant ) on 15/Dec/08 06:49
Superb prediction, thanks Bac. Who knew Admirable could be out-predicted :P
By: phil ( Flatline-Ns ) on 15/Dec/08 08:52
nice predictions .. but they are so wroooong.
By: phil ( Flatline-Ns ) on 15/Dec/08 08:55
so much effort for nothing.. and who is nade ? :>
By: Oetel on 15/Dec/08 09:51
Nice predictions, looking forward to watching this game. Oh noes, losing the cup icon :(

I'll put my money on the finns, go peachie!
By: Fana ( Archaea ) on 15/Dec/08 15:49
Fat noobs! Who cares!
By: mu on 19/Dec/08 07:54
i wish more people played ns

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